If you live in Harris County and recently opened your FEMA renewal letter, you might have felt a sudden wave of financial stress. Many homeowners are seeing repeat increases, often up to 18 percent, and are left wondering why. Flood zones have stayed the same for most homeowners, but FEMA’s calculation methods have not.
You're likely on the Glide Path, a federally mandated rate increase schedule that continues year after year unless you actively change course.
In this article, you'll learn:
Why your flood insurance rates are rising in 2026
What the “Glide Path” really means for your wallet
When private flood insurance may save you money
Why many private insurers are exiting Harris County
How to know if you still qualify for affordable coverage
Under FEMA’s Risk Rating 2.0 system, every home now has a “true risk premium” calculated by FEMA. If you are currently paying less than that number, FEMA is required by law to increase your rate by up to 18 percent each year until you reach it.
Example:
Current premium: $1,200/year
True risk rate: $4,500/year
Result: You are now on the Glide Path, meaning automatic increases every year until you hit $4,500.
You can usually find this number labeled Full-Risk Premium on your renewal letter. If that number is much higher than what you're currently paying, your rate is likely going to keep climbing.
One of the only ways to escape FEMA’s automatic increases is to switch to a private flood insurance carrier. These policies are based on current risk and offer a fixed rate that doesn't increase each year like the Glide Path.
But this comes with a big warning.
If something goes wrong during the switch, you may not be able to return to the NFIP at your subsidized rate. Many homeowners who jump too soon end up stuck with higher premiums permanently.
Real Case Study: From $300 to $1,500 Overnight
A Houston homeowner paying $300/year with the NFIP switched to private insurance. During underwriting, the insurer discovered a past flood loss and canceled the new policy. When she returned to the NFIP, her rate was recalculated to the full-risk amount, $1,500/year. She lost her discount forever.
This is why we always verify your private policy is issued and active before you cancel anything.
Private flood carriers have become increasingly selective, especially in Harris County where flood claims are common.
0 claims: Most likely to qualify
1–2 claims: May be eligible depending on the carrier
3 or more claims: Almost always restricted to NFIP only
Houston homes generally don’t have basements, but your foundation still plays a role in how your flood risk is calculated.
Slab Foundation: Rate depends on elevation in relation to the street level
Pier and Beam: Usually more favorable if venting is compliant with FEMA standards
Why is my flood insurance going up every year in Houston?
You are likely on the FEMA Glide Path, which raises rates by up to 18 percent annually until you reach your full-risk premium.
What is the FEMA Glide Path exactly?
It is a structured rate increase for policyholders who currently pay less than FEMA’s calculated full-risk premium. These increases continue yearly until the full amount is reached.
Can private flood insurance stop the annual increases?
Yes, private flood insurance offers a stable, one-time risk-based premium. However, only switch if the new policy is active and your eligibility is confirmed.
What if I’ve had a flood claim in the past?
Your options may be limited. One or two claims may still qualify you for private coverage, depending on the carrier. More than two usually means NFIP is your only choice.
Can I return to the NFIP if I leave it?
Yes, but not always at the same rate. If your private policy is canceled or lapses, returning to the NFIP may reset your rate at the full-risk premium.
Flood insurance is changing in Houston, and costs are rising fast. But you’re not stuck. Now that you understand what the Glide Path is and how it impacts your rates, you can make smarter choices about your coverage.
Some homeowners can switch to private insurance and save money. Others may need to stay with the NFIP but explore policy audits for savings.
At Flood Insurance Guru, we help Houston residents navigate these decisions without the stress or surprises. Whether you qualify for private insurance or need to maximize your NFIP policy, we guide you step-by-step.