What Just Happened
On February 10, 2026, FEMA quietly posted a draft of Harris County's new flood maps online, the first comprehensive update since 2007. These maps use higher rainfall estimates (17 inches in 24 hours, up from 13), updated LiDAR terrain data, and more advanced modeling than anything Harris County has worked with before.
According to a Houston Chronicle analysis, the 100-year floodplain would grow by about 130 square miles, a 43% increase. In many areas, the new 100-year boundary roughly aligns with what used to be the 500-year floodplain. The 500-year floodplain would increase by about 62 square miles, or 30%.
What the Timeline Looks Like
This won't happen overnight. Here's the expected path:
Neighborhoods Affected, Matched to Our Pricing Data
Here's where it gets specific. We matched the neighborhoods flagged in the draft maps to real premium data from the 40 Houston properties in our book. This is what homeowners in these areas are actually paying right now.
What Houston Homeowners Actually Pay: 40 Properties, No Filters
This is the data nobody else has. We pulled every Houston property in our book, 40 policies across 26 zip codes, and laid out the premiums. What you'll see is that flood zone is not destiny. Your specific property determines your rate under Risk Rating 2.0.
| Neighborhood | Zip | Zone | Premium |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cypress | 77041 | X | $301 |
| Greenspoint Area | 77014 | X | $341 |
| Alief | 77072 | X | $505 |
| River Oaks Area | 77019 | X | $531 |
| Third Ward | 77021 | X | $629 |
| Meyerland | 77096 | X | $939 |
| Memorial | 77024 | X | $1,251 |
| Southeast Houston | 77089 | X | $1,666 |
| Neighborhood | Zip | Zone | Premium |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kingwood | 77345 | AE | $432 |
| Meyerland | 77096 | AE | $493 |
| Fondren Southwest | 77099 | AE | $707 |
| Jersey Village Area | 77040 | AE | $1,327 |
| Meyerland | 77096 | AE | $2,796 |
| Memorial | 77024 | AE | $3,324 |
| Clear Lake | 77059 | AE | $3,658 |
What This Means for Your Flood Insurance
Here's the part most people miss: flood maps don't set your insurance rate. They determine whether you're required to carry flood insurance. Your actual premium is set by Risk Rating 2.0, FEMA's property-specific pricing model, or by private carriers using their own underwriting.
If your property moves into a Special Flood Hazard Area and you have a federally backed mortgage, you will be required to carry flood insurance. That's where comparing NFIP vs. private becomes critical.
Our Zone AE comparison data tells the story:
Most of our 40 Houston policies are written through NFIP Write-Your-Own carriers. For properties where private carriers offer better rates, like high-value homes in Memorial or properties where RR 2.0 prices aggressively, we place them with private options. Neither is universally better. The only way to know is to quote both.
Four Scenarios Houston Homeowners Face Right Now
What You Should Do Right Now
Even though these maps won't be enforced for 2 to 3 years, the smart move is to act before the rush. Once maps finalize and tens of thousands of homeowners are suddenly required to buy flood insurance, the private market may tighten.
Step 1: Check your property. Harris County Flood Control District is launching a public viewer at hcfcd.org/MAAPnext. You can also check the draft on FEMA's site directly.
Step 2: Get a side-by-side comparison. If you're in or near the expanded floodplain, we quote both NFIP and private carriers so you see the real numbers.
Step 3: Know your appeal rights. During the formal comment period, you can challenge your designation. An Elevation Certificate or LOMA may apply.
Step 4: Don't assume your zone equals your cost. Our data proves it. Zone X in SE Houston: $1,666. Zone AE in Kingwood: $432. Risk Rating 2.0 looks at your property, not just the map line.
Frequently Asked Questions
The maps released on February 10, 2026 are drafts. They carry no regulatory weight yet. The typical timeline from draft to enforcement is 2 to 3 years. Local officials review first (30 days), then FEMA prepares a broader public release (~90 days), followed by a formal comment and appeal period. Final adoption is estimated around 2028 to 2029. Until maps are finalized and adopted, your current flood zone designation and insurance requirements remain unchanged.
